Oil Stocks: Sandy McIntyre, Sentry Select Capital Corp
Sandy McIntyre, VP and senior portfolio manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp
PEYTO ENERGY (TSE:PEY.UN) extremely high quality asset base..struggling with above-normal decline wells which is affecting growth rates..that is behind us..production stabilized..valuation is fair, now it is question on what is your gas call..I am negative on gas between now and possibly end of Janaury-February..I am very bullish on gas in 2008..CapEx is not there..we are going to see material declines in Canadian production, translates to higher prices
SHININGBANK ENERGY (TSE:SHN.UN): it is responding to gas prices..gas-weighted trust, payout ratio is higher than we like..however, it has a good land base..good one to buy, we have owned on and off for years..however, I think gas will be weaker January-February..
VAULT ENERGY (TSE:VNG.UN): smaller oil and gas trust..missed production numbers a couple of times and has more leverage than we like..however asset base is good..has opportunity to fix itself..in a weak gas market, not a good entry point
GAZ METROPOLITCAN (TSE:GZM.UN): high quality asset base..gas distribution..this is the perfect long duration trust asset that should be in a flow-through vehicle, no growth profile..
PAST PICK + TOP PICK FOCUS ENERGY (TSE:FET.UN): worse than your average oil and gas trust..shame because Focus is one of few that follows the sustainable model: Cash Flow - CapEx > Distributions..funding capital internally..4 to 5 years of development work in front of them..no need to find new properties..what I am focusing on here is quality of management and opportunity..favorite of gas stocks..bullish on 2008 gas..do not buy it today but between now and end of 1st quarter..buy secular low, load up, hold for year and a half..we are currently buying it at these prices, liquidity is not there..
TRIOLOGY ENERGY (TSE:TET.UN): I would suggest payout ratio >100%..I would say that it has really good asset base..name we will come back a gas name in 2008 gas market..
CANETIC RESOURCES (TSE:CNE.UN): bought $3 billion in assets this year..stresses in execution, have not been hitting production numbers..consolidating number of acquisitions is difficult but acquired really good properties..at some point in next six months, back on our buy list..we want to see production stabilized or plan to show us where they will be a year from now
BONAVISTA TRUST (TSE:BNP.UN): high quality trust..fund CapEx out of internally-generated cash flow, management owns substantial portion of company..they are already planning for what they will look like 4-6 years from now..one of our top five holdings..
PEYTO ENERGY (TSE:PEY.UN) extremely high quality asset base..struggling with above-normal decline wells which is affecting growth rates..that is behind us..production stabilized..valuation is fair, now it is question on what is your gas call..I am negative on gas between now and possibly end of Janaury-February..I am very bullish on gas in 2008..CapEx is not there..we are going to see material declines in Canadian production, translates to higher prices
SHININGBANK ENERGY (TSE:SHN.UN): it is responding to gas prices..gas-weighted trust, payout ratio is higher than we like..however, it has a good land base..good one to buy, we have owned on and off for years..however, I think gas will be weaker January-February..
VAULT ENERGY (TSE:VNG.UN): smaller oil and gas trust..missed production numbers a couple of times and has more leverage than we like..however asset base is good..has opportunity to fix itself..in a weak gas market, not a good entry point
GAZ METROPOLITCAN (TSE:GZM.UN): high quality asset base..gas distribution..this is the perfect long duration trust asset that should be in a flow-through vehicle, no growth profile..
PAST PICK + TOP PICK FOCUS ENERGY (TSE:FET.UN): worse than your average oil and gas trust..shame because Focus is one of few that follows the sustainable model: Cash Flow - CapEx > Distributions..funding capital internally..4 to 5 years of development work in front of them..no need to find new properties..what I am focusing on here is quality of management and opportunity..favorite of gas stocks..bullish on 2008 gas..do not buy it today but between now and end of 1st quarter..buy secular low, load up, hold for year and a half..we are currently buying it at these prices, liquidity is not there..
TRIOLOGY ENERGY (TSE:TET.UN): I would suggest payout ratio >100%..I would say that it has really good asset base..name we will come back a gas name in 2008 gas market..
CANETIC RESOURCES (TSE:CNE.UN): bought $3 billion in assets this year..stresses in execution, have not been hitting production numbers..consolidating number of acquisitions is difficult but acquired really good properties..at some point in next six months, back on our buy list..we want to see production stabilized or plan to show us where they will be a year from now
BONAVISTA TRUST (TSE:BNP.UN): high quality trust..fund CapEx out of internally-generated cash flow, management owns substantial portion of company..they are already planning for what they will look like 4-6 years from now..one of our top five holdings..
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