Sunday, October 15, 2006

Oil Stocks: Phil Flynn, Alaron Trading, on Oil

Quiet Phase In Energy Market

Phil Flynn, capital markets analyst, Alaron Trading on Canada's Report on Business Television RobTV Thursday Oct 12

On Oil:
worst is over depends on whether you're bullish or bearish..critical junction right now..market has corrected fast..last year it held, now we're testing it again..I believe because I'm optimistic on economy and demand outlook that we're probalby closer to a low..but if they take out $57, momentum will continue to mid-$50s and maybe be low-$50s..I really believe market will find support..right now psychology of market so bearish..when Saudi Arabia kept silent on OPEC cuts, gave speculators more momentum to downside to sell of the market..doesn't matter what other OPEC members say until they have papa bear Saudi Arabia going along with it..if Saudis strongly favor production market, then I think you will see low for market this year and perhaps next year, but we have not heard from them yet..it seemed Saudi were for the cut, then backed off, that's why oil was bearish

On Buying into Oil Stocks:
very speculative play right now to get long..BUT, if you believe economy will be strong, slowing demand overrated, probably best buying opportunity..but very speculative, charts look terrible..if options trading, great time to buy when everybody else bearish

Crude Oil Rises for a Third Day as OPEC Discusses Output Cut
(by Hector Forster) for Bloomberg

Oct. 16 Crude oil rose for a third day in New York on concern OPEC members will reduce production further to stem a decline in prices in the past two months.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, producer of 40 percent of the world's oil, will meet in Qatar on Oct. 19 to discuss falling oil prices and a proposed output cut, the group's acting secretary general Mohammed Barkindo said yesterday.

Crude oil for November delivery rose as much as 38 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $58.95 a barrel in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $58.85 a barrel at 6:17 a.m. Singapore time. The contract gained 71 cents, or 1.2 percent, to close at $58.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Oct. 13.

OPEC still hasn't decided whether to make a proposed 1 million-barrel-a-day cut in output from the group's actual production or its quota. The group's 10 members with quotas pumped 27.6 million barrels a day last month, according to Bloomberg data. OPEC's official production ceiling, which excludes Iraq's output, is 28 million barrels a day.

OPEC members will meet in Doha, Qatar, to discuss one item on their agenda, which is a proposal to cut 1 million barrels a day from the group's actual production, Qatar Oil Minister Abdulla bin Hamad al-Attiyah said in a statement to state-run Qatar News Agency yesterday.
Crude oil also rose on Oct. 13 after Norway shut two offshore platforms for safety precautions. Statoil ASA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc today began closing the rigs, which represent almost 10 percent of output of the nation, the world's third- largest crude exporter.

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