Oil Stocks: Rob Lauzon, Middlefield Capital
Rob Lauzon, portfolio manager, Middlefield Capital on RoBTV Oct 20th
CRESCENT POINT ENERGY (TSE:CPG.UN): we really like..recently bought Mission Oil & Gas..bought high quality assets + land values..could hit the jackpot with this acquisition..typically CPG yielding 12%..we own the name
THUNDER ENERGY (TSE:THY.UN): we don’t own..higher risk natural gas play..higher decline on gas well, higher debt, higher payout ratio..trades at significant discount to group..we’re not high-risk investors..better off with PEYTO (TSE:PEY.UN)..
CATHEDRAL ENERGY (TSE:CET.UN): directional drilling, small service..good management..reflected in the price, sold off $4..we’ve been buying small amounts..great entry point...don’t buy a whole lot, but we think it’ll pick back up throughout early parts of next year..already priced in
ARC ENERGY (TSE:AET.UN): one of the favorite royalty trusts of Middlefield..50% oil, 50% gas..underlying business very tied to commodity..we bought more at $25-26..if you can get it in that range, fantastic buying opportunity
TRILOGY ENERGY (TSE:TET.UN): very gas weighted, we don’t own..too much debt and payout ratio, cut distribution..
PAST PICK PEYTO ENERGY (TSE:PEY.UN): gas weighted, reserve life of around 17 years, one of the highest reserve lives in royalty trust..payout 50-60%..own it if you think gas prices going up
PENGROWTH ENERGY (TSE:PGF.UN): if we had sharp pullback in oil <$50 and gas at $6, Pengrowth should cut distribution..tends to have higher debt and issues lots of shares yearly
CANETIC RESOURCES (TSE:CNE.UN): we own..lagging because substantial acquisitions..create problems, tough to integrate..if you own it, diversify around it..
SHININGBANK ENERGY (TSE:SHN.U): don’t think it’s time to enter in yet..cut distribution..we would rather to own a PEYTO or BONAVISTA ENERGY (TSE:BNP.UN), PROGRESS ENERGY (NYSE:PGN TSE:PGX.UN), ZARGON ENERGY (TSE:ZAR.UN)
NAL OIL & GAS (TSE:NAE.UN): we hold it but it’s not one of our top holdings..adds diversification..
TRUE ENERGY (TSE:TUI.UN): At one point it was paying 30% a year..red flag..just cut distribution..still with yield 23%..gas-weighted..gas moves with weather..want to buy high-quality, low payout..higher-risk, higher-reward story..
PRIME WEST (TSE:PWI.UN): distribution cuts are telling you something..not a high quality name..gas weighted 70%..
TOP PICK: CANADIAN OIL SANDS TRUST (TSE:COS.UN): we continue to own it..oil sands is the cheapest royalty trust out there..trades below NAV at <$30..not too many places in the world where you can find 40+ year reserve life..synthetic crude is high-quality light sweet oil crude..major fields around the world depleting..in time will see more international interest in oil sands..geopolitically safe area Canada
CRESCENT POINT ENERGY (TSE:CPG.UN): we really like..recently bought Mission Oil & Gas..bought high quality assets + land values..could hit the jackpot with this acquisition..typically CPG yielding 12%..we own the name
THUNDER ENERGY (TSE:THY.UN): we don’t own..higher risk natural gas play..higher decline on gas well, higher debt, higher payout ratio..trades at significant discount to group..we’re not high-risk investors..better off with PEYTO (TSE:PEY.UN)..
CATHEDRAL ENERGY (TSE:CET.UN): directional drilling, small service..good management..reflected in the price, sold off $4..we’ve been buying small amounts..great entry point...don’t buy a whole lot, but we think it’ll pick back up throughout early parts of next year..already priced in
ARC ENERGY (TSE:AET.UN): one of the favorite royalty trusts of Middlefield..50% oil, 50% gas..underlying business very tied to commodity..we bought more at $25-26..if you can get it in that range, fantastic buying opportunity
TRILOGY ENERGY (TSE:TET.UN): very gas weighted, we don’t own..too much debt and payout ratio, cut distribution..
PAST PICK PEYTO ENERGY (TSE:PEY.UN): gas weighted, reserve life of around 17 years, one of the highest reserve lives in royalty trust..payout 50-60%..own it if you think gas prices going up
PENGROWTH ENERGY (TSE:PGF.UN): if we had sharp pullback in oil <$50 and gas at $6, Pengrowth should cut distribution..tends to have higher debt and issues lots of shares yearly
CANETIC RESOURCES (TSE:CNE.UN): we own..lagging because substantial acquisitions..create problems, tough to integrate..if you own it, diversify around it..
SHININGBANK ENERGY (TSE:SHN.U): don’t think it’s time to enter in yet..cut distribution..we would rather to own a PEYTO or BONAVISTA ENERGY (TSE:BNP.UN), PROGRESS ENERGY (NYSE:PGN TSE:PGX.UN), ZARGON ENERGY (TSE:ZAR.UN)
NAL OIL & GAS (TSE:NAE.UN): we hold it but it’s not one of our top holdings..adds diversification..
TRUE ENERGY (TSE:TUI.UN): At one point it was paying 30% a year..red flag..just cut distribution..still with yield 23%..gas-weighted..gas moves with weather..want to buy high-quality, low payout..higher-risk, higher-reward story..
PRIME WEST (TSE:PWI.UN): distribution cuts are telling you something..not a high quality name..gas weighted 70%..
TOP PICK: CANADIAN OIL SANDS TRUST (TSE:COS.UN): we continue to own it..oil sands is the cheapest royalty trust out there..trades below NAV at <$30..not too many places in the world where you can find 40+ year reserve life..synthetic crude is high-quality light sweet oil crude..major fields around the world depleting..in time will see more international interest in oil sands..geopolitically safe area Canada
posted by Spelunca at 3:55 PM
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