Oil Stocks: Glenn MacNeill, Sentry Select Capital Corp
Glenn MacNeill, VP, investments, Sentry Select Capital Corp. (PART 2)
PARAMOUNT ENERGY TRUST (TSE:PMT.UN): this is a trust that we like management..good properties, again it is facing tax obligation down the road..closer to 30%, lack of tax write-offs..gas-oriented
SHELL CANADA (TSE:SHC): we continue to hold Shell, sold a small amount of it after acquisition announced..I think Shell Canada at $42 a steal for Royal Dutch..might need to up a little bit..Shell Canada bought Black Rock for more than Royal Dutch paying for Shell per barrel..we are hoping that Royal Dutch will raise bid and market certainly believes that..
GALLEON ENERGY (TSE:GO.A): one of our longest holdings, since $4..great slate of drilling prospects..got almost a million net acres to choose from in Peach Arch area..new discovery quite exciting, looks geographically quite spread out..we are looking close to $30..
INNOVA EXPLORATION (TSE:IXL): volatile story for number of reasons..two main assets in Saskatchewan..gas play in Northeast British Columbia..disappointing, dry holes, production rates..must reevaluate on what to do..we did own large chunk of company at one point in time, now sold off..this is play for oil, market is not paying much for British Columbia stuff
BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY (TSE:BIR): company has not performed that well..management has not changed..had been a holder in the past, sold position down, have not looked in detail much recently..probably would not increase my position
CINCH ENERGY (TSE:CNH): this is another disappointing story..management decent assets..stock has not performed that well..risks associated with them..management must prove it can deliver..
DAYLIGHT (TSE:DAY.UN): some production drops..debt levels somewhat high..do not like it
FREEHOLD TRUST: middle performer, hold, relatively immune to cost increases..target $15
ARC ENERGY (TSE:AET.UN): buy, target $25, great trust, currently pays about 15%
TRIOLOGY (TSE:TET.UN): in the middle of offering..repricing issues..net seller at this point in time, target ~$12
REAL RESOURCES (TSE:RER): we like it, hold it..target $18-19
PROGRESS ENERGY (TSE:PGX.UN): one of our favorites, target $19-20..well managed, gas weighted, low payout ratio..
TOP PICK TALISMAN ENERGY (NYSE:TLM TSE:TLM): very cheap large company, trading at very low multiples..broad range of diversified assets..we like it, feel it is undervalued..keep hoping market recognizes value and growth rate..should see $25..put it at value close to peers, about 13X current earnings
TOP PICK NUVISTA ENERGY (TSE:NVA): 80% gas driven story, produces about 12,500 barrels a day..keeps cost under control..been holding for us..clockwork execution..this is pricy but paying for good management, superb track record..$20 quite feasible
TOP PICK BOW VALLEY ENERGY (TSE:BVX): expecting significant amount of production in next 18 months..North Sea assets 75%..current production about 3,000 barrels a day..7,500 next year..interesting play in Alaska..relatively high risk..like what we see there..had some trouble with Canadian operations..make up 25%, have not performed that well, currently working on it..target price $15 range..
PARAMOUNT ENERGY TRUST (TSE:PMT.UN): this is a trust that we like management..good properties, again it is facing tax obligation down the road..closer to 30%, lack of tax write-offs..gas-oriented
SHELL CANADA (TSE:SHC): we continue to hold Shell, sold a small amount of it after acquisition announced..I think Shell Canada at $42 a steal for Royal Dutch..might need to up a little bit..Shell Canada bought Black Rock for more than Royal Dutch paying for Shell per barrel..we are hoping that Royal Dutch will raise bid and market certainly believes that..
GALLEON ENERGY (TSE:GO.A): one of our longest holdings, since $4..great slate of drilling prospects..got almost a million net acres to choose from in Peach Arch area..new discovery quite exciting, looks geographically quite spread out..we are looking close to $30..
INNOVA EXPLORATION (TSE:IXL): volatile story for number of reasons..two main assets in Saskatchewan..gas play in Northeast British Columbia..disappointing, dry holes, production rates..must reevaluate on what to do..we did own large chunk of company at one point in time, now sold off..this is play for oil, market is not paying much for British Columbia stuff
BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY (TSE:BIR): company has not performed that well..management has not changed..had been a holder in the past, sold position down, have not looked in detail much recently..probably would not increase my position
CINCH ENERGY (TSE:CNH): this is another disappointing story..management decent assets..stock has not performed that well..risks associated with them..management must prove it can deliver..
DAYLIGHT (TSE:DAY.UN): some production drops..debt levels somewhat high..do not like it
FREEHOLD TRUST: middle performer, hold, relatively immune to cost increases..target $15
ARC ENERGY (TSE:AET.UN): buy, target $25, great trust, currently pays about 15%
TRIOLOGY (TSE:TET.UN): in the middle of offering..repricing issues..net seller at this point in time, target ~$12
REAL RESOURCES (TSE:RER): we like it, hold it..target $18-19
PROGRESS ENERGY (TSE:PGX.UN): one of our favorites, target $19-20..well managed, gas weighted, low payout ratio..
TOP PICK TALISMAN ENERGY (NYSE:TLM TSE:TLM): very cheap large company, trading at very low multiples..broad range of diversified assets..we like it, feel it is undervalued..keep hoping market recognizes value and growth rate..should see $25..put it at value close to peers, about 13X current earnings
TOP PICK NUVISTA ENERGY (TSE:NVA): 80% gas driven story, produces about 12,500 barrels a day..keeps cost under control..been holding for us..clockwork execution..this is pricy but paying for good management, superb track record..$20 quite feasible
TOP PICK BOW VALLEY ENERGY (TSE:BVX): expecting significant amount of production in next 18 months..North Sea assets 75%..current production about 3,000 barrels a day..7,500 next year..interesting play in Alaska..relatively high risk..like what we see there..had some trouble with Canadian operations..make up 25%, have not performed that well, currently working on it..target price $15 range..
posted by Spelunca at 11:05 AM
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