Monday, January 01, 2007

Oil Stocks: Bill Harris, Avenue Investment Management

Bill Harris, partner and portfolio manager, Avenue Investment Management

On Oil Stocks:

Real Resources (TSE:RER): I think now the mid-tier very important..well-managed company, great assets, got momentum already..stock collapsed with intermediate sector..but now cheap..the company stopped drilling, supply has come off..sort of a patient pay..

Shell Canada (TSE:SHC): I think Shell is gone, great stock to have in Canadian context..we own Canadian companies, we do not need to go outside of Canada and take risk, can buy SUNCOR (NYSE:SU TSE:SU) and ENCANA (NYSE:ECA TSE:ECA)..if you wanted to stay with mothership ROYAL DUTCH, yield is 3.5% which is pretty good..great global projects

Rally Energy (TSE:RAL): the one important fundamental to this story is lower-risk development in Egypt..the reason why stock has done well is simple geology..Pakistan adds upside to it..interesting sleeper stock..great plan going forward..

Oilexco (TSE:OIL): spending quite a bit of time on this stock..great optionality to it..North Sea play, found barrel..infrastructure important..looks like they have solid plan for that..I think this one does well..sort of basing right now..having a renaissance in North Sea with junior companies..BOW VALLEY (CVE:BVX) has been doing for 5-6 years..ITHACA ENERGY (CVE:IAE) as well..Oilexco has great operational momentum

Western Oil Sands (TSE:WTO): run in the oil price, gone through shoulder season..we own SUNCOR (NYSE:SU TSE:SU), pure play..technically on paper Western Oil Sands has more upside than Suncor but you do not have them keeping control of project..if you are energy investor, you have to have exposure to oil sands..

Stylus Energy (TSE:STY): just financed in our flow-through portfolio..I put it exactly in category of Western Canadian producer incredibly beaten up..stocks as whole incredibly cheap..go with it..

Top Pick Encana Corp (NYSE:ECA TSE:ECA): it is our core natural gas holding..we could be at the bottom for another 9 months or so but at some point we think supply-demand tightens up..myself I am long-term investor..great long-term assets..

Top Pick Falcon Oil & Gas (CVE:FO): you need development license, flow these wells..highest point of risk in story so far

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