Oil Stocks: Bill Harris

Bill Harris, partner and portfolio manager, Avenue Investment Management

Oil Bottom?

We are certainly at short-term pressure point..stock market is going up, oil is going done, lot of money coming out of futures market..but the traders commitment which is a number that I like following suggests we may be finding a bottom here and net commercial buyers are actually positive on oil and I try to follow them

CFTC Figures

There are two pieces of this market, this is my own take on it..there is a lot of noise in short-term trade pattern..what you are trying to focus on is commercial view..where do the big commercials come into the market, that is why sets tops and bottom..strip out of the noise and big commercials are coming back into oil once you hit $55

Weather

Two distinct issues there..oil I think with falling of copper, this is not short-term commodity call but broader view about the economy, very much a signal..short-term weather affects natural gas, different market..only another two weeks of winter, this cycle is done and we are onto summer

Distribution Cuts

we have actually positioned portfolio away from space because of confusion..if you are royalty trust that has a declining asset base, need to make up mind today whether you are going to be continuing business or blowing down cash flow..need to make hard decision today and turn business into sustainable company if they can..