Oil Stocks: Jean-Francois Tardif, Peter Hodson, Sprott Asset Management
Peter Hodson, senior portfolio manager, Sprott Asset Management
PETROBANK ENERGY (TSE:PBG): currently do not own it but not negative viewpoint..I like Whitesands development..oil sector is suffering from sector rotation..management spun out Columbian assets, developing THAI..I will own six months from now
SAXON ENERGY (TSE:SES): play on management, recruited from Precision Drilling..diversified away from South America..much sentiment against drilling..if you look beyond current cycle..can get some short-term pain..
Jean-Francois Tardif, senior portfolio manager, Sprott Asset Management
FALCON OIL AND GAS (CVE:FO): higher risk stock, do not know exactly how much they are going to produce..gas play in Hungary..there is according to expert lot of gas..still waiting for more news..if news good, the stock will fly..if the news bad, stock will fly down..binary situation here
PETRO-CANADA (NYSE:PCZ TSE:PCA): there is a lot more growth in smaller-cap..junior should trade at higher multiple..if you want to make money, buy smaller-cap and diversify in a basket..it is a large company, personally I do not really like..I have shorted against the ones I own..
CATHEDRAL ENERGY (TSE:CET.UN): I am not short that company..provide services to companies..right now problem with gas side of equation..lot of producers have announced cutbacks..long term there is no change..pool is still shrinking..expect earnings to slow two quarters, right now I would not buy..if I owned now, will sell..do not expect big moves in short term
WESTERN OIL SANDS (TSE:WTO): still holding this one..would expect in 2007 we will see more takeovers in oil sands in Canada..all of those stocks should do well..whether it is UTS ENERGY (TSE:UTS) or WESTERN OIL SANDS, see all other stocks go up..we are very bullish on oil in 2007..
ALTUS GROUP (TSE:AIF.UN): I was lucky to sell before big drop..large percentage of business in service in Alberta..because gas prices weak, I was worried..we have yet to see results..company well managed..CEO very aggressive..think company will become a lot bigger, through acquisition and internal growth..around $10 I was thinking of buying..yield roughly 11.5%..very high quality earnings..all earnings free cash flow, no CapEx needed for growth..
RIDER RESOURCES (TSE:RRZ): SHININGBANK ENERGY (TSE:SHN.UN) made a takeover offer on RIDER..decided not to do merger..now RIDER back on its own..for many months focused on new growth ideas..now have to go back..probably take few months for stock to do better..price of gas is weak..I say within 2-3 years stock has good chance to go back..price of gas should go to $10 at least given 6:1 oil to gas ratio..
HARVEST ENERGY (NYSE:HTE TSE:HTE.UN): it is not an energy that we like at all..larger ones including HARVEST seeing declining production per share..even if on absolute terms seem like they are growing, issue too many shares..they were doing well because gas and oil going up..now people are paying attention to growth, which is negative for HARVEST..I am shorting it, costs some money because they have yield..shorting it against the small-caps that I own
PETROBANK ENERGY (TSE:PBG): currently do not own it but not negative viewpoint..I like Whitesands development..oil sector is suffering from sector rotation..management spun out Columbian assets, developing THAI..I will own six months from now
SAXON ENERGY (TSE:SES): play on management, recruited from Precision Drilling..diversified away from South America..much sentiment against drilling..if you look beyond current cycle..can get some short-term pain..
Jean-Francois Tardif, senior portfolio manager, Sprott Asset Management
FALCON OIL AND GAS (CVE:FO): higher risk stock, do not know exactly how much they are going to produce..gas play in Hungary..there is according to expert lot of gas..still waiting for more news..if news good, the stock will fly..if the news bad, stock will fly down..binary situation here
PETRO-CANADA (NYSE:PCZ TSE:PCA): there is a lot more growth in smaller-cap..junior should trade at higher multiple..if you want to make money, buy smaller-cap and diversify in a basket..it is a large company, personally I do not really like..I have shorted against the ones I own..
CATHEDRAL ENERGY (TSE:CET.UN): I am not short that company..provide services to companies..right now problem with gas side of equation..lot of producers have announced cutbacks..long term there is no change..pool is still shrinking..expect earnings to slow two quarters, right now I would not buy..if I owned now, will sell..do not expect big moves in short term
WESTERN OIL SANDS (TSE:WTO): still holding this one..would expect in 2007 we will see more takeovers in oil sands in Canada..all of those stocks should do well..whether it is UTS ENERGY (TSE:UTS) or WESTERN OIL SANDS, see all other stocks go up..we are very bullish on oil in 2007..
ALTUS GROUP (TSE:AIF.UN): I was lucky to sell before big drop..large percentage of business in service in Alberta..because gas prices weak, I was worried..we have yet to see results..company well managed..CEO very aggressive..think company will become a lot bigger, through acquisition and internal growth..around $10 I was thinking of buying..yield roughly 11.5%..very high quality earnings..all earnings free cash flow, no CapEx needed for growth..
RIDER RESOURCES (TSE:RRZ): SHININGBANK ENERGY (TSE:SHN.UN) made a takeover offer on RIDER..decided not to do merger..now RIDER back on its own..for many months focused on new growth ideas..now have to go back..probably take few months for stock to do better..price of gas is weak..I say within 2-3 years stock has good chance to go back..price of gas should go to $10 at least given 6:1 oil to gas ratio..
HARVEST ENERGY (NYSE:HTE TSE:HTE.UN): it is not an energy that we like at all..larger ones including HARVEST seeing declining production per share..even if on absolute terms seem like they are growing, issue too many shares..they were doing well because gas and oil going up..now people are paying attention to growth, which is negative for HARVEST..I am shorting it, costs some money because they have yield..shorting it against the small-caps that I own
posted by Spelunca at 3:58 AM
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