Oil Stocks: John Kilduff, Fimat USA
John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy risk, Fimat USA
On Oil Sell-off
I think it was overdone, seen more volatility in 2006 continuing, hotter faster money, lot of hedge fund selling..energy and most commodities lost luster especially with allure of double-digit returns in equity markets..
OPEC
Month on month, actually up in production..Nigerian and Venezula oil coming back online..rumblings from Saudi Arabia not happy with brethren not cutting..Saudis are implementing February 1st cuts..so far half-hearted attempts
Iran
US general acknowledged Iran could have capacity to block Straits, 25% of world oil flows through but also said US army could unblock it
Weather
Question is if it persists or not..Northeastern weather fed into huge bear sentiment, natural gas leading way, heating and crude oil falling..El Nino effect should producer colder spring, should provide some late season demand, support prices..
Difference in Bull and Bear Outlooks
I think it is a number of things..if you were here in 1998 and oil at $10, sort of see how folks wrap around that target..at same time folks worried about geopolitics, Chinese demand, US global economy that keeps chugging even though it gets weighed down here and there..
Oil Target 2007-8
Concerned if oil breaks $55, could slide down into $40s if it breaks..elements that got us here remain in place..geopolitics, strong economic performance, demand that never went away..can only get highs on geopolitical, supply disruptions..you have to be buyer mid-$50s, out of position mid-$60s..my prediction average of $63
On Oil Sell-off
I think it was overdone, seen more volatility in 2006 continuing, hotter faster money, lot of hedge fund selling..energy and most commodities lost luster especially with allure of double-digit returns in equity markets..
OPEC
Month on month, actually up in production..Nigerian and Venezula oil coming back online..rumblings from Saudi Arabia not happy with brethren not cutting..Saudis are implementing February 1st cuts..so far half-hearted attempts
Iran
US general acknowledged Iran could have capacity to block Straits, 25% of world oil flows through but also said US army could unblock it
Weather
Question is if it persists or not..Northeastern weather fed into huge bear sentiment, natural gas leading way, heating and crude oil falling..El Nino effect should producer colder spring, should provide some late season demand, support prices..
Difference in Bull and Bear Outlooks
I think it is a number of things..if you were here in 1998 and oil at $10, sort of see how folks wrap around that target..at same time folks worried about geopolitics, Chinese demand, US global economy that keeps chugging even though it gets weighed down here and there..
Oil Target 2007-8
Concerned if oil breaks $55, could slide down into $40s if it breaks..elements that got us here remain in place..geopolitics, strong economic performance, demand that never went away..can only get highs on geopolitical, supply disruptions..you have to be buyer mid-$50s, out of position mid-$60s..my prediction average of $63
posted by Spelunca at 12:31 AM
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