Sunday, January 07, 2007

Oil Stocks: Michael Sprung

Michael Sprung, president, Sprung & Company Investment Counsel

CANADIAN OIL SANDS (TSE:COS.UN): long-term excellent hold..this company decreasing debt levels, could increase payout..yield just a little over 4%..for income trust and equity exposure, not quite sufficient yield, hoping to buy a little cheaper..long-term, lot of production come from oil sands but margins being squeezed currently..right now trading at around $29..I think if it were to pull back to $25 we would take serious look at it

PENNWEST ENERGY (NYSE:PWE TSE:PWT.UN): I think if oil were to get down to $50, look at distribution cuts for a lot of these companies..you are right in that they are approaching 52-week low..very good management, land holdings, not a bad reserve-life..yield is 12%..other thing I like about PENNWEST is fairly good production profile..

PETRO-CANADA (NYSE:PCZ TSE:PCA): we do continue to hold in all our portfolios, we do like it..increasing production profile..integrated play, both upstream and downstream operations..extremely well-managed company..we look at pullback to add more exposure

PRIMEWEST ENERGY (NYSE:PWI TSE:PWI.UN): people suspect they will not be able to sustain distribution and I would agree with that..going forward I am not sure it will be survivor but there has to be floor price as which the value of that royalty going into the future is worth something..maybe getting there but we have not done enough homework

PENGROWTH ENERGY
(NYSE:PGH TSE:PGF.UN) own it in lot of accounts, holding onto it still despite pullback..mid-sized in energy field, market cap about ~$3.5 billion..sells at reasonable multiple, book value is slightly higher than current price although they did large issue last month at $19..pulled price to current level..in meantime pay about $3 distribution, fairly safe for time being although if oil goes to $50 may be tenuous..modestly growing production profile, exit this year somewhere around 60,000boe..

TOP PICK TALISMAN ENERGY (NYSE:TLM TSE:TLM): beaten up..longer term energy still good sector to invest in..TALISMAN pulled back mid-$20s to level today..energy company with growth..exit this year with 200,000boe..large major company $20 billion market cap..diversification, assets North America and Asia..we think its mix is split between oil and natural gas..we think this is company that can perform very well over next few years..superb balance sheet, well-financed company..we have owned it for over two years..

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