Oil: Randy Ollenberger
Randy Ollenberger, energy analyst, BMO Nesbitt Burns
Iran and Oil
I think we will see a little easing of oil prices, especially Brent crude, had run up to $70 trading ahead of WTI..I think WTI can ease back $1-2, it will be short-lived pullback, underlying market still supportive; our view is oil prices moving higher the next couple of quarters
Oil Support and Resistance
$64 starting WTI based on Iran releasing the British sailors, could see easing but as we move more and more into gasoline season, I see oil moving to $70 late April-early May..whether it breaks through depends on economic situation in US and how strong gasoline situation is..gasoline prices have increased even more dramatically than oil prices suggest that is determining factor, not geopolitical events..
Energy Stocks
I think now is good time to start looking..we just upgraded oil and gas producers..we think gas prices bottomed, our recommendation is investors start increasing exposure, both oil-levered and gas-levered companies..
Fundamentals for Global Energy
Rate of growth in demand has slowed little bit, trend underway for a decade..all of the growth China, India, South Korea, US..growth rate in US has slowed certainly in last two years but still running at pretty healthy levels..if government starting implementing product taxes to European levels, that will impact demand, if environmental push results in taxes, could affect oil demand, but could increase demand for natural gas..
Refineries
Refining capacity still in short supply..they are going through turnaround from heating oil and diesel..utilization rates starting to creep up..real driver is no refining capacity added..US market will look for sources of import, less this year than last year..botteneck really is refining capacity..nobody really wants refineries located where they live, but also costs to build have increased dramatically..only way to build is if you see refining margins sustained..
Iran and Oil
I think we will see a little easing of oil prices, especially Brent crude, had run up to $70 trading ahead of WTI..I think WTI can ease back $1-2, it will be short-lived pullback, underlying market still supportive; our view is oil prices moving higher the next couple of quarters
Oil Support and Resistance
$64 starting WTI based on Iran releasing the British sailors, could see easing but as we move more and more into gasoline season, I see oil moving to $70 late April-early May..whether it breaks through depends on economic situation in US and how strong gasoline situation is..gasoline prices have increased even more dramatically than oil prices suggest that is determining factor, not geopolitical events..
Energy Stocks
I think now is good time to start looking..we just upgraded oil and gas producers..we think gas prices bottomed, our recommendation is investors start increasing exposure, both oil-levered and gas-levered companies..
Fundamentals for Global Energy
Rate of growth in demand has slowed little bit, trend underway for a decade..all of the growth China, India, South Korea, US..growth rate in US has slowed certainly in last two years but still running at pretty healthy levels..if government starting implementing product taxes to European levels, that will impact demand, if environmental push results in taxes, could affect oil demand, but could increase demand for natural gas..
Refineries
Refining capacity still in short supply..they are going through turnaround from heating oil and diesel..utilization rates starting to creep up..real driver is no refining capacity added..US market will look for sources of import, less this year than last year..botteneck really is refining capacity..nobody really wants refineries located where they live, but also costs to build have increased dramatically..only way to build is if you see refining margins sustained..
posted by Spelunca at 5:59 PM
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